The recent admission by a former top Russian official that the country is moving away from Putin's leadership and can envision a future without him marks a significant shift in Russian society. This shift is not just symbolic but reflects a growing sentiment among the elite and the general population that Putin's rule has led Russia to a dead end. The official's statement in an Economist op-ed, where he noted the subtle change in language among government peers, regional governors, and businessmen, is a clear indicator of this evolving mindset. The use of 'he' instead of 'we' in describing Putin's actions is a subtle yet powerful way to express a lack of solidarity. This change occurred last spring, but the former official emphasizes that it doesn't signal an imminent rebellion, as the state still maintains control over key repressive mechanisms. However, the mounting costs of the war in Ukraine, including high inflation, crumbling infrastructure, and tighter censorship, have contributed to this shift. The irony, as the official points out, is that Putin initiated the war to preserve his power and the system he has created, but now, for the first time, Russians are imagining a future without him. This sentiment is further supported by the regime's inability to maintain a narrative of national restoration or modernization, as the country continues to lose blood and treasure in the war. The financial crisis, with climbing debt defaults and warnings of a financial collapse, has also played a role in this shift. The pushback from Russian elites, who have lost the protection of Western laws and have had their assets seized by the state, is another significant factor. The former official estimates that around $60 billion in assets has been taken from private businessmen, either through outright nationalization or redistribution to cronies. This has led to a craving for rules and institutions that can resolve conflicts fairly, even among those loyal to the regime. The decline of the rules-based global order and Russia's inability to exploit institutions like the United Nations Security Council further contribute to this shift. Additionally, the collapse of Russia's previous social contract, where citizens enjoyed private lives as long as they stayed out of politics, has led to a situation where repression, intrusion, and censorship are the norm. The Kremlin's internet blackouts, aimed at limiting information on economic woes and casualties in Ukraine, have raised howls of protest among ordinary Russians. Putin's retreat into a bunker, spending most of his time micromanaging the war and paranoid about a coup or assassination attempt, further underscores the disconnection between the regime and the people. The persistent inflation and the quagmire in Ukraine have weighed heavily on public sentiment, with Putin's approval rate falling from 77.8% at the start of the year to 65.6%, according to a survey from Russia's state-owned pollster. The former official concludes that while the system can persist as long as Putin remains in power, his every move to preserve and expand it accelerates decay. This admission and the subsequent shift in language and sentiment among the elite and the general population signal a significant turning point in Russia's history, one that may have profound implications for the country's future.
